GFWL Playoffs: Round 1 Predictions & Analysis


The Goat Format War League playoffs are underway! The inaugural season of the War League featured 15 weeks of regular season dueling, with plenty of action, intensity, trash talk and drama along the way. Season 1 began with 16 teams vying to stake their claim as the top team in Goat Format. Now those 16 teams have been cut down to 8. Here’s how the playoff teams ranked at the end of the regular season:

#1 Rampage HK (10W-5L; 2 byes earned)
#2 Bad Bones (10W-5L; 2 byes earned)
#3 Rampage (9W-6L; 1 bye earned)
#4 Oversweep (9W-6L; 1 bye earned)
#5 LRG (9W-6L)
#6 Enraged Pandas (9W-6L)
#7 Eloteros (9W-6L)
#8 Ultra Instinct (8W-7L)

The playoff race was extremely tight until the very end, with seeds #3-#7 all incredibly finishing with the same win/loss record. Literally every match these teams played in Week 15 mattered for playoff seeding. A “net match win” tiebreaker was used to separate them. LRG’s Week 15 loss to Beam Tones (who finished in 9th) dropped them from 2nd place down to 5th, and Eloteros fell all the way from 1st to 7th with a loss to Rampage, costing both teams 2 free byes in the process.

While the regular season matchups were played 5v5 head-to-head, the playoffs shift over to the iron man format, where the winning player keeps playing matches until they lose. Teams only had to win 3 out of 5 matches to win the week during the regular season, but now they’ll have to defeat every member on the opposing side. Deep teams will be favored and teams with weak links may get exposed. Let’s dig into the first round matchups among the bottom 4 seeds, which are going on right now.

#5 LRG vs #8 Ultra Instinct

Currently tied 2-2 at the time of this publication, my prediction before the war started was that LRG would win (I may be biased). Shaggy Powers, team captain of Ultra Instinct, bravely led the charge for his team and claimed first blood with a win over Mark_MPS. Mark was gracious enough to give Shaggy the life points he needed to get back above 2000 via an untimely Upstart Goblin and, in true heart of the cards fashion, Shaggy ripped a Dimension Fusion off the top to steal the game. Both sides have been trading wins since then, with the most recent match being won by WorldGoneMaad, who took out Crashvolt in an epic, 4-game match that was ultimately decided by Magic Cylinder.

Wild Card – LRG: WorldGoneMaad (8W-3L Regular Season)
With 1 win already under his belt, WGM has vowed to sweep the rest of UI’s roster. He invented sweeping btw. And iron mans. His innovative brand of warriors and his tactics on and off the dueling field just might get him there.

Wild Card – UI: Giya76 (6W-7L Regular Season)
Although she finished with a middling regular season record, Giya is a duelist to watch out for due to her unpredictability. Capable of playing Turbo, Bazoo, Panda Burn or Rescue Cat well, her first opponent will definitely be in for a surprise.

Weak Link – LRG: Wow Wink (0W-2L Regular Season)
Without a single win to my name this season, the pressure is on for me to get my first W. That’s if WGM even loses. In my defense, one loss came from freakishly bad draws where I drew just a single monster (a lone BLS) over the course of two games. The second loss came in week 6, when I was forced to sub in and use Ivan’s deck after half our team pulled a Benedict Arnold. Not many duelists could win with a handicap like that! That was the last match I played, some ten weeks ago. I guess you could say I’ve got the same philosophy as Allen Iverson when it comes to practice. But you best believe I’ll go out there and play every game like it’s my last. And when you come into the arena and you see me play, you’ll see me give everything I’ve got.

Weak Link – UI: Indoors (4W-7L Regular Season)
Of UI’s remaining players, Indoors finished the regular season with the worst record. A former GFC champ, can he pull himself out of his slump or will he #STAYFREE? With a match against WGM scheduled for Independence Day, it looks like the British will be taking another L from America on the 4th of July.

Prediction: LRG wins
Fake Vegas Odds: LRG -145

#6 Enraged Pandas vs #7 Eloteros

Unfortunately by the time I was able to write this, the war is nearly over. My prediction before the war started was that EP would win, and it’s looking likely that they will. It was neck and neck until Jase came in and started kicking over tables, knocking out 3 duelists in a row. EP currently leads 5-3, with 3 players remaining on their side to just 1 on the Eloteros side. But Zoidberg put himself last for this very reason. Can one of this season’s breakout players regain his early season form and counter the sweep? Or is the corn about to get popped?

Wild Card – EP: Jase (6W-2L Regular Season)
One of the best free agent signings in the whole war league, Jase has kept his regular season momentum going strong in the playoffs. He helped steady the Pandas when they were on the verge of collapse after week 5, and he’s done the same here again in round 1. How much longer can his hot streak last? With the Corn Men down to their last player, it might not matter.

Wild Card – Eloteros: Zoidberg (7W-6L Regular Season)
Zoidberg shocked the world when he beat Ivan Rossitto in week 1. No one expected Zoidberg to win that match. Ivan himself proclaimed the odds to be 90/10 in his favor. Now Zoidberg is staring down those 90/10 odds again. He’s come a long way from being the duelist who once spent most of his time in the #complainaboutlosses channel. He’s respected by his peers and revered by his teammates, who he nearly led to a top 2 seed. No one expected Zoidberg to beat Ivan. No one expected Eloteros to be in the playoffs. And now no one expects Eloteros to beat EP, but based on Zoidberg’s history, maybe they should.

Weak Link – EP: LucasGustafsson (5W-4L Regular Season)
Everyone’s favorite former streamer, LucasGustafsson has been mostly absent from the war league server in recent weeks, one of the reasons why his team placed him last in their lineup. If the Pandas end up needing him, and that’s a big if, will Lucas be able to shake the rust off? Lucas started out hot, winning 5 matches in a row, but ended the season with a 3 match loss streak. Which Lucas will show up for his match?

Weak Link – Eloteros: Ron Swanson (4W-3L Regular Season)
Ron Swanson led the lineup for the Corn Men, and he did so with a peculiar deck choice: Stein. It was hard to get a feel for his deck since he was so thoroughly blown out by WZ in game 1, but the card choices we saw on his end in game 2 were not very reassuring. It’s safe to say that against a team well known for playing burn, bringing Stein wasn’t the right move.

Prediction: EP wins
Fake Vegas Odds: EP -2000


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